**DRAFT:**This module has unpublished changes.

**This lesson will include five key activities: **

- An introduction activity on how to calculate theoretical probability
- A discussion on how experimental probability varies from the theoretical probability
- An exploration activity on probability of hitting a target
- An introduction to medieval weaponry and its correlation to the probability of hitting a target
- A discussion on how to calculate the probability for a non uniform distribution

**DRAFT:**This module has unpublished changes.

**DRAFT:**This module has unpublished changes.

**Day 1:**

- Students will be divided into groups, according to social class designated in history, and each group will be given a square sheet of paper that is divided into eight even areas and eight paper clips.
- Students will be expected to explain their reasoning for knowing that the probability of landing on each number is 1/8.
- A discussion is then directed toward the idea that the target has to be divided into sections of equal area and the theoretical probability is the area of the shaded region you are looking to hit, such as 1, over the area of the sample space.
- Students will be expected to conduct 8 trials and compare their experimental probabilities to their calculated theoretical probability.

**DRAFT:**This module has unpublished changes.

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